After a week of cautious optimism and calculated risk-taking, Pakistan’s financial scene delivered a range of results in different areas. A succession of notable economic movements kept everyone alert, from the glittering jewels of the bullion market to the busy trade floors of the Karachi Stock Exchange. This piece offers a comprehensive summary of the week’s significant changes in the currency exchange rate, gold investments’ dazzling appeal, and stock market fluctuations, emphasising the ramifications for both experienced and inexperienced investors.

THE STOCK MARKET: A STUDY IN RESILIENCE

A Closer Look at KSE-100’s Performance: The KSE-100 Index, a barometer for Pakistan’s stock market health, exhibited a modest increase, marking a close at 65,793.76. This upward nudge, though slight, speaks volumes of the market’s resilience amidst anticipatory vibes surrounding the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Trading Volume and Sectoral Movements: The average daily trading volume showed a palpable heartbeat within the market, with numbers slightly up from the previous week.

Noteworthy is the sectorial performance where Oil & Gas Exploration Companies took the lead, followed by gains in Investment Banks and Securities Companies, showcasing a selective yet optimistic market sentiment.


GOLD: THE RADIANT HAVEN

Unprecedented Surge: The domestic bullion market was ablaze with activity, as gold prices soared to remarkable highs. The 24-karat gold leaped nearly Rs10,000 per tola, anchoring at an unprecedented price level. This surge is mirrored in the international arena, with spot gold peaking at record highs, driven by a global anticipation of a dovish turn in monetary policies.

Global Cues and Domestic Impact: The rally was fueled by a series of dovish signals from major economies, notably the U.S., where manufacturing and labor market data alongside Federal Reserve’s hints at easing, primed the market for gold’s ascent. This bullish momentum in gold is a testament to its enduring appeal as a refuge amid economic uncertainties.


THE CURRENCY TAPESTRY

PKR’s Steady Stride: In the realm of currencies, the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) showcased a tempered strength, gaining marginally against the USD. This stability, though subtle, is a crucial factor in the broader economic narrative, influencing import costs and the pricing dynamics in the domestic gold market.

This week, the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) has exhibited remarkable resilience, rising by almost 16 paisa versus the US dollar (USD). It ended the week at a respectable PKR 279.04 to the USD, up from PKR 279.18 at the close of the previous week. The native currency demonstrated its resilience in the financial markets throughout the trading day, strengthening by almost 25 paisa, hitting an intraday high of 279.65 and a low of 279.4.

Interplay of Economic Indicators: Beyond the currency’s performance, a spectrum of economic indicators, from inflation rates to external debt figures, offers a comprehensive view of the nation’s economic pulse. The CPI, trade balance, and foreign investment flows, among others, stitch together a narrative of challenges and opportunities that lie on the horizon.

 


UNDERSTANDING PAKISTAN’S MARKET DYNAMICS

We examine Pakistan’s economic performance over the last week in detail in our most recent economic digest. This extensive research includes a wide range of data, such as gold prices and wider economic measurements, as well as currency valuations and stock market changes. By emphasising developments and trends that may have an impact on investment choices and economic forecasts, we hope to provide our readers with an insight of the state of the financial system today. This update offers crucial insights into significant financial moves and their possible ramifications, whether you’re an investor, economist, or just someone curious about Pakistan’s economic situation.

IndicatorMar 08, 2024Mar 01, 2024
PKR InterBank279.0366279.1932
KSE100 Index65,793.7665,325.69
Avg Daily Volume425,011,077418,498,717
Gold (Karachi) Rs/10 gm195,988185,871
KIBOR 6M21.3621.73
10Y PIB14.2214.33
EUR1.09391.084
GBP1.28591.2653
CHF0.87770.8834
JPY147.072150.116
CNY7.18617.1967
GOLD2,178.782,083.32
SILVER24.31223.139
USD (Open Market)281.70282.03
EUR (Open Market)306.99303.59
GBP (Open Market)359.25354.66
JPY (Open Market)1.891.86
AED (Open Market)76.5776.69
SAR (Open Market)74.8074.90
T-Bill Auction 3M21.400221.6998
T-Bill Auction 6M20.394920.3952
T-Bill Auction 12M20.299820.3290
PIB Auction 3Y16.799916.8000
PIB Auction 5Y15.549915.5000
PIB Auction 10Y14.500014.5000
SBP Policy Rate22.0021.00
SBP Reverse Repo Rate23.0022.00
SBP Repo Rate21.0020.00
SBP FX Reserves7,895.707,949.60
Bank FX Reserves5,124.305,088.90
Total FX Reserves13,020.0013,038.50
SPI (Combined Group)322.86319.30
CPI (MOM %)0.031.83
CPI (YOY %)23.0628.34
WPI (MOM %)1.121.47
WPI (YOY %)18.6626.95
Sensitive Price Indicator (MOM %)-0.131.98
Sensitive Price Indicator (YOY %)36.2643.86
Exports2,573.002,792.00
Imports4,285.004,771.00
Trade Balance-1,712.00-1,979.00
Home Remittances2,249.772,397.91
Total Foreign Investment-147.71243.33
Current Account Balance-269.00404.00
REER Index101.702698.8267
Large Scale Manufacturing Index132.87114.85
Pakistan’s External Debt131,159.10129,742.00
GDP Growth Rate-0.176.17
Agriculture Growth Rate2.254.28
Manufacturing Growth Rate-5.2910.86
Commodity Sector Growth Rate-0.505.49
Services Sector Growth Rate0.076.66
Budget Deficit (% of GDP)-7.70-7.90
Total Debt & Liabilities (% of GDP)91.1089.70
Total Debt & Liabilities (Rs. Billion)77,104.1059,772.10
Trade Balance (July – June)-27,547.00-48,354.00
Worker Remittances (July – June)27,027.6331,278.80
Foreign Investment (July – June)429.671,857.84
Current Account Balance (July – June)-2,387.00-17,481.00
Annual Inflation Rate % (July – June)29.1812.15

CONCLUSION

This past week’s economic odyssey through Pakistan’s markets has unveiled a multifaceted landscape of opportunities and cautionary tales.

The incremental yet resilient stock market growth, the buoyant rally in gold prices, and the nuanced stability of the PKR against the backdrop of broader economic indicators, collectively sketch a roadmap for navigating the intricate terrain of financial investments.

As we parse through these insights, the narrative woven offers not just a reflection of the present but a glimpse into the strategic moves that could shape the future of Pakistan’s economic journey.

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