ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a growth of 2.09% in the third quarter of FY24, compared to a revised growth of 1.79% in the previous quarter, according to estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday.
Additionally, the growth rate for the first quarter was revised upwards to 2.71% from the previously reported 2.50%, as presented in the 108th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC). Cumulatively, the economy has shown a growth of 2.38% over the first nine months of FY24.
These estimates were approved during the 109th NAC meeting held on the same day.
SECTOR-WISE GROWTH ANALYSIS
Agriculture: The agriculture sector exhibited a robust growth of 3.94% in Q3. Key contributors included important crops (2.89%, driven by wheat), other crops (1.14%), cotton ginning (61.75%), and livestock (4.20%). For the nine months of FY24, the agriculture sector’s growth was provisionally estimated at 6.25%, bolstered by significant increases in wheat (11.64%), cotton (108.22%), and rice (34.78%). However, sugarcane (-0.39%) and maize (-10.35%) recorded declines.
Industry: Industrial growth reached 3.84% in Q3, despite a significant contraction in the construction industry (-15.75%). This growth was driven by mining and quarrying (0.63%), large-scale manufacturing (1.47%), and electricity, gas, and water supply (37.3%). For the cumulative period, the industrial sector grew by 1.21%, supported by increases in mining and quarrying (4.85%) and specific manufacturing sectors, despite a nominal overall growth of 0.07% in large-scale manufacturing.
Services: The services sector grew by 0.83% in Q3 FY24, with mixed trends across its sub-sectors. Positive contributors included wholesale and retail trade (0.38%), transport and storage (0.91%), and education (10.38%). Negative growth was observed in information and communication (-5.92%), finance and insurance (-7.11%), and public administration and social security (-6.38%). For the nine months, the services sector posted a provisional growth of 1.21%, with education (10.30%) and health and social work (6.80%) showing strong performance.
“The healthy growth of agriculture is mainly due to double-digit growth in important crops”, the bureau said, adding that bumper crop of wheat, cotton, and rice contributed to the positive result.
CUMULATIVE GROWTH FY24
The NAC approved a provisional GDP growth rate of 2.38% for FY24. The agriculture sector led with a growth of 6.25%, followed by industry and services, both at 1.21%.
Detailed Breakdown by Sector
- Agriculture: Growth in important crops (16.82%) was driven by record wheat, cotton, and rice production. Other positive contributors included cotton ginning (47.23%), livestock (3.89%), and forestry (3.05%).
- Industry: Mining and quarrying saw growth due to increases in crude oil (1.51%), coal (37.72%), and other minerals like limestone (7.95%) and marble (23.22%). The construction industry grew by 5.86%, driven by increased expenditures in the private and public sectors. However, electricity, gas, and water supply experienced a decline of 10.55% due to reduced subsidies in real terms.
- Services: Positive growth in wholesale and retail trade (0.32%), transport and storage (1.19%), education (10.30%), and health and social work (6.80%) was partially offset by declines in information and communication (-3.02%), finance and insurance (-9.64%), and public administration and social security (-5.25%).
