In a recent analysis by Bloomberg Economics, the spectre of a direct war between Iran and Israel, while deemed unlikely, looms as a potential catalyst for crude oil prices to surge to $150 per barrel. This projection underscores the economic ramifications of geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
It’s important to note that the statement provided is based on a hypothetical scenario presented by Bloomberg economics, considering a direct war between Iran and Israel. As of now, there is no ongoing direct war between Iran and Israel. Geopolitical tensions can indeed impact oil prices, and any actual conflict could have serious consequences for global energy markets, potentially leading to supply disruptions and affecting the global economy.
OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
As for the oil Technical Analysis, the breakthrough on the daily chart, which broke above a declining trend line, suggests a potential trend reversal, pending a close above the 75.61 mark. Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, confirmation requires surpassing 76.043. But, vigilance is essential because the formerly robust descending line now needs to serve as a support layer.
As of the latest update, WTI Crude stands at $72.66 per barrel, experiencing a marginal decrease of $0.02, equivalent to a 0.03% change. Meanwhile, Brent Crude is currently valued at $78.42 per barrel, showing a slight increase of $0.27 or 0.35%. Data maybe delayed by 10 minutes.
IMPACT ON GLOBAL ECONOMY
Bloomberg’s assessment suggests that such a conflict could lead to a substantial reduction in global GDP, estimating a decrease of about 1 percentage point. Additionally, a spike of 1.2 percentage points in global inflation could be expected, signifying the far-reaching consequences of a military confrontation in the region.
GLOBAL CRUDE SUPPLY AT RISK
Termed an “extreme scenario” by Bloomberg, a war between Iran and Israel could jeopardize one-fifth of the world’s crude supply and compromise vital trade routes. The potential materialization of this conflict introduces a new dimension to the already complex geopolitical landscape.
ONGOING TENSIONS AND RISING RISKS
The analysis points to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly highlighting the precarious situation after more than three months of conflict in Gaza. This extended conflict raises concerns about a broader regional escalation that could disrupt oil flows, impact global economic growth, and contribute to heightened inflationary pressures.
While energy-supply disruption of this magnitude has not occurred to date, Bloomberg notes that markets are recognizing the rising risk associated with geopolitical tensions in the region.
ESCALATING TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Recent events, such as the US and UK launching airstrikes in Yemen in response to Houthi militants’ attacks on vessels in a key global commerce gateway, have further intensified tensions in the Red Sea. Daily exchanges of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border and the assassination of a Hamas leader in Beirut add complexity to the situation, with the potential to draw Hezbollah, and consequently Iran, deeper into the conflict.
FLASHPOINTS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA
Beyond the immediate conflict zones, Iraq and Syria are increasingly viewed as potential flashpoints, contributing to the overall volatility and unpredictability in the region.
CURRENT IMPACT ON CRUDE OIL PRICES
The existing supply constraints have led to a decrease in crude oil prices by $5.6 per barrel. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that this trend may reverse in 2024 if conflicts escalate, exerting upward pressure on prices.
As geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, the world watches closely, understanding that the potential consequences extend beyond regional conflicts to impact global economic stability and energy markets.
