Pakistan’s headline inflation climbed to 12.6% on a year-on-year basis in June, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday. This is an increase from May’s 11.8%. On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate rose to 0.5%.
“This came in line with our expectation,” commented brokerage house Topline Securities.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure brings the FY24 average inflation to 23.4%, compared to 29.2% in FY23. This reading aligns with the government’s projections as well.
GOVERNMENT’S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
On Friday, the Ministry of Finance’s ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report had anticipated a slight increase in the inflation outlook for June 2024 compared to the previous month, but noted it remains significantly lower than the same period last year.
“This rise is primarily due to higher prices of perishable items driven by Eid ul Adha,” the report stated. The ministry emphasized that the government aims to stabilize prices and mitigate market volatility by managing supply and demand, presenting a more optimistic inflation outlook.
BROKERAGE HOUSE PROJECTIONS
The inflation figure was also consistent with forecasts by several brokerage houses. JS Global predicted the CPI to clock in at 12.5% YoY, bringing the FY24 average to 23.8%, continuing a downward trend from 17.3% in April 2024 and a significant drop from 29.4% in June 2023.
Similarly, AKD Securities Limited projected inflation to register a 12.55% YoY increase, compared to 11.76% YoY in the previous month.
URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION
The PBS reported that urban CPI inflation was 14.9% on a year-on-year basis in June 2024, up from 14.3% in May and 27.3% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation increased to 0.6% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 2.8% in May and a rise of 0.1% in June 2023.
Rural CPI inflation increased to 9.3% year-on-year in June 2024, compared to 8.2% in May and 32.4% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation rose to 0.3% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 3.9% in May and a decrease of 0.8% in June 2023.
SBP EXPECTATIONS
In its previous meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to reduce the key policy rate by 150 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 20.5%. This was the first cut in the key policy rate in four years.
The MPC noted that the significant decline in inflation since February was broadly in line with expectations, with May’s figures performing better than anticipated. The committee observed that underlying inflationary pressures are subsiding amidst a tight monetary policy stance and fiscal consolidation.
“This is reflected by continued moderation in core inflation and ease in inflation expectations of both consumers and businesses in the latest surveys,” the MPC stated. However, the committee also highlighted some upside risks to the near-term inflation outlook, associated with upcoming budgetary measures and uncertainty regarding future energy price adjustments.
The MPC emphasized that the cumulative impact of earlier monetary tightening is expected to keep inflationary pressures in check.
Pakistan’s headline inflation climbed to 12.6% on a year-on-year basis in June, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday. This is an increase from May’s 11.8%. On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate rose to 0.5%.
“This came in line with our expectation,” commented brokerage house Topline Securities.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure brings the FY24 average inflation to 23.4%, compared to 29.2% in FY23. This reading aligns with the government’s projections as well.
GOVERNMENT’S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
On Friday, the Ministry of Finance’s ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report had anticipated a slight increase in the inflation outlook for June 2024 compared to the previous month, but noted it remains significantly lower than the same period last year.
“This rise is primarily due to higher prices of perishable items driven by Eid ul Adha,” the report stated. The ministry emphasized that the government aims to stabilize prices and mitigate market volatility by managing supply and demand, presenting a more optimistic inflation outlook.
BROKERAGE HOUSE PROJECTIONS
The inflation figure was also consistent with forecasts by several brokerage houses. JS Global predicted the CPI to clock in at 12.5% YoY, bringing the FY24 average to 23.8%, continuing a downward trend from 17.3% in April 2024 and a significant drop from 29.4% in June 2023.
Similarly, AKD Securities Limited projected inflation to register a 12.55% YoY increase, compared to 11.76% YoY in the previous month.
URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION
The PBS reported that urban CPI inflation was 14.9% on a year-on-year basis in June 2024, up from 14.3% in May and 27.3% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation increased to 0.6% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 2.8% in May and a rise of 0.1% in June 2023.
Rural CPI inflation increased to 9.3% year-on-year in June 2024, compared to 8.2% in May and 32.4% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation rose to 0.3% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 3.9% in May and a decrease of 0.8% in June 2023.
SBP EXPECTATIONS
In its previous meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to reduce the key policy rate by 150 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 20.5%. This was the first cut in the key policy rate in four years.
The MPC noted that the significant decline in inflation since February was broadly in line with expectations, with May’s figures performing better than anticipated. The committee observed that underlying inflationary pressures are subsiding amidst a tight monetary policy stance and fiscal consolidation.
“This is reflected by continued moderation in core inflation and ease in inflation expectations of both consumers and businesses in the latest surveys,” the MPC stated. However, the committee also highlighted some upside risks to the near-term inflation outlook, associated with upcoming budgetary measures and uncertainty regarding future energy price adjustments.
The MPC emphasized that the cumulative impact of earlier monetary tightening is expected to keep inflationary pressures in check.
Pakistan’s headline inflation climbed to 12.6% on a year-on-year basis in June, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday. This is an increase from May’s 11.8%. On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate rose to 0.5%.
“This came in line with our expectation,” commented brokerage house Topline Securities.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure brings the FY24 average inflation to 23.4%, compared to 29.2% in FY23. This reading aligns with the government’s projections as well.
GOVERNMENT’S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
On Friday, the Ministry of Finance’s ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report had anticipated a slight increase in the inflation outlook for June 2024 compared to the previous month, but noted it remains significantly lower than the same period last year.
“This rise is primarily due to higher prices of perishable items driven by Eid ul Adha,” the report stated. The ministry emphasized that the government aims to stabilize prices and mitigate market volatility by managing supply and demand, presenting a more optimistic inflation outlook.
BROKERAGE HOUSE PROJECTIONS
The inflation figure was also consistent with forecasts by several brokerage houses. JS Global predicted the CPI to clock in at 12.5% YoY, bringing the FY24 average to 23.8%, continuing a downward trend from 17.3% in April 2024 and a significant drop from 29.4% in June 2023.
Similarly, AKD Securities Limited projected inflation to register a 12.55% YoY increase, compared to 11.76% YoY in the previous month.
URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION
The PBS reported that urban CPI inflation was 14.9% on a year-on-year basis in June 2024, up from 14.3% in May and 27.3% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation increased to 0.6% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 2.8% in May and a rise of 0.1% in June 2023.
Rural CPI inflation increased to 9.3% year-on-year in June 2024, compared to 8.2% in May and 32.4% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation rose to 0.3% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 3.9% in May and a decrease of 0.8% in June 2023.
SBP EXPECTATIONS
In its previous meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to reduce the key policy rate by 150 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 20.5%. This was the first cut in the key policy rate in four years.
The MPC noted that the significant decline in inflation since February was broadly in line with expectations, with May’s figures performing better than anticipated. The committee observed that underlying inflationary pressures are subsiding amidst a tight monetary policy stance and fiscal consolidation.
“This is reflected by continued moderation in core inflation and ease in inflation expectations of both consumers and businesses in the latest surveys,” the MPC stated. However, the committee also highlighted some upside risks to the near-term inflation outlook, associated with upcoming budgetary measures and uncertainty regarding future energy price adjustments.
The MPC emphasized that the cumulative impact of earlier monetary tightening is expected to keep inflationary pressures in check.
Pakistan’s headline inflation climbed to 12.6% on a year-on-year basis in June, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday. This is an increase from May’s 11.8%. On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate rose to 0.5%.
“This came in line with our expectation,” commented brokerage house Topline Securities.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure brings the FY24 average inflation to 23.4%, compared to 29.2% in FY23. This reading aligns with the government’s projections as well.
GOVERNMENT’S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
On Friday, the Ministry of Finance’s ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report had anticipated a slight increase in the inflation outlook for June 2024 compared to the previous month, but noted it remains significantly lower than the same period last year.
“This rise is primarily due to higher prices of perishable items driven by Eid ul Adha,” the report stated. The ministry emphasized that the government aims to stabilize prices and mitigate market volatility by managing supply and demand, presenting a more optimistic inflation outlook.
BROKERAGE HOUSE PROJECTIONS
The inflation figure was also consistent with forecasts by several brokerage houses. JS Global predicted the CPI to clock in at 12.5% YoY, bringing the FY24 average to 23.8%, continuing a downward trend from 17.3% in April 2024 and a significant drop from 29.4% in June 2023.
Similarly, AKD Securities Limited projected inflation to register a 12.55% YoY increase, compared to 11.76% YoY in the previous month.
URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION
The PBS reported that urban CPI inflation was 14.9% on a year-on-year basis in June 2024, up from 14.3% in May and 27.3% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation increased to 0.6% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 2.8% in May and a rise of 0.1% in June 2023.
Rural CPI inflation increased to 9.3% year-on-year in June 2024, compared to 8.2% in May and 32.4% in June 2023. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation rose to 0.3% in June 2024, compared to a decrease of 3.9% in May and a decrease of 0.8% in June 2023.
SBP EXPECTATIONS
In its previous meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to reduce the key policy rate by 150 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 20.5%. This was the first cut in the key policy rate in four years.
The MPC noted that the significant decline in inflation since February was broadly in line with expectations, with May’s figures performing better than anticipated. The committee observed that underlying inflationary pressures are subsiding amidst a tight monetary policy stance and fiscal consolidation.
“This is reflected by continued moderation in core inflation and ease in inflation expectations of both consumers and businesses in the latest surveys,” the MPC stated. However, the committee also highlighted some upside risks to the near-term inflation outlook, associated with upcoming budgetary measures and uncertainty regarding future energy price adjustments.
The MPC emphasized that the cumulative impact of earlier monetary tightening is expected to keep inflationary pressures in check.
