GOLD PER TOLA PRICE IN PAKISTAN: The gold per tola price in Pakistan remained stable on Monday, with the Karachi Sarafa Association reporting 24-karat gold at Rs256,000 per tola. This marks a slight decrease of Rs500, despite significant global market fluctuations.
GLOBAL GOLD MARKET TURBULENCE
On the international front, spot gold faced substantial volatility, plunging as much as 3.2% during the session—the largest intraday drop since early June. The metal eventually closed 1.2% lower, with a trading range of over $90, as concerns over a slowing US economy intensified.
MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) SPIKES
The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged by 180% to 65.7—the highest level since the 2020 COVID crash. This sharp rise in volatility reflects the growing anxiety surrounding the potential for a deeper economic slowdown in the United States.
SILVER PRICES FOLLOW SUIT
Similarly, spot silver prices fell by 4.6% internationally, a drop that would typically translate into a loss of approximately Rs130 per tola in Pakistan. However, the Karachi Sarafa Association reported that 24-karat silver was being sold at Rs2,850 per tola, showing a modest decrease of Rs50.
IMPACT OF DOLLAR TO PKR ON PRECIOUS METALS
The fluctuations in the gold per tola price in Pakistan are also influenced by movements in the foreign exchange market, particularly the dollar to PKR exchange rate. This dynamic is closely watched by traders, as it can further impact the pricing of precious metals in the local market.
A day earlier!: KSE-100 INDEX GAINS 485.68 POINTS
GOLD PRICE HOLDS GROUND AMID MARKET UNCERTAINTY
GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) REMAINS STABLE AT $2,400
The Gold price remains stable at $2,400 during Tuesday’s European session, with the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields giving up some of their recent gains. Investors are keenly awaiting fresh cues that could signal whether the United States is on the brink of a recession and how the Federal Reserve (Fed) might adjust interest rates this year.
US DOLLAR INDEX AND TREASURY YIELDS MOVEMENT
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, has recovered to near 103.00 after hitting a six-month low near 102.15. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields have pulled back but continue to hold above 3.86%. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
GOLD PRICE SUPPORTED BY GLOBAL RISKS
The Gold price outlook remains firm, bolstered by several global factors. Rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, have increased gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The conflict has escalated following Israel’s airstrike in Tehran and Iran’s retaliatory missile launch on Israeli territory.
GOLD PRICE DRIVEN BY FED RATE CUT PROSPECTS
FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUT SPECULATION
The Gold price continues to gain ground as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve will implement significant rate cuts due to fears of a US economic slowdown. This speculation is driven by indicators such as softening labor demand, a rising unemployment rate, and contraction in the manufacturing sector.
US ECONOMY AND RECESSION FEARS
Despite strong economic performance in the first half of the year, with a 2.8% annualized GDP growth in the second quarter, concerns of a recession persist. The Services PMI expansion, however, has somewhat alleviated these fears, suggesting continued economic growth at an annualized rate of 2.2%.
FED RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders anticipate a 50-basis point rate cut in September, with expectations of a more than 100-basis point reduction by the end of the year. Comments from Fed officials, including Chicago Federal Bank President Austan Goolsbee, have reinforced these expectations, indicating the Fed’s readiness to respond to signs of economic weakness.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: GOLD PRICE SUPPORT LEVELS
GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The Gold price is currently trading within a slightly rising channel formation on the daily timeframe, maintaining support above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $2,370. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflects market indecisiveness, oscillating within the 40.00-60.00 range.
KEY PRICE LEVELS
A breakout above the all-time high of $2,483.75 could push the Gold price into uncharted territory, while a downside move would find significant support at the upward-sloping trendline near $2,225, traced from the October 6 low around $1,810.50.
GLOBAL MARKETS IN TURMOIL AMID ECONOMIC WEAKNESS AND TECH STOCK DECLINE
A day earlier on the Global Stock Market havoc day markets are experiencing turmoil due to weakening economies, central bank policies, and a significant drop in tech stocks. The Japanese Topix index fell over 12% in a major sell-off, echoing past crises. The downturn is driven by economic data that raises doubts about the ability of global policymakers to control inflation without severe economic consequences. The US jobs report showed a sharper hiring slowdown than expected, contributing to concerns. The EU faces geopolitical and economic challenges, while China’s manufacturing sector weakens. Tech stocks, which had previously driven market gains, are now under pressure, exacerbating the decline. Japanese stocks have been particularly hard hit due to their sensitivity to global economic shifts and foreign investment movements. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain high interest rates has added to the uncertainty, raising fears of a potential recession.
