KSE-100 INDEX UPDATE: GAINS TEMPERED BY SELLING PRESSURE

The KSE-100 Index started Monday on a strong note, surging by 1.55% early in the session. However, profit-taking later in the day erased much of these gains, leaving the index to close at 98,079.78, up by 281.55 points (0.29%).

Key Highlights of the Trading Session

1. Index Performance:
   • Intraday Range: A volatile trading day saw a high of 99,317.47 and a low of 97,137.63, a spread of 2,179.84 points.
   • Closing Value: Ended at 98,079.78, marking a moderate increase.
2. Sector Contribution:
   • Top Sectors:
     • Commercial Banks (+616.56 points): Rumors regarding the potential removal of the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) on savings drove optimism in this sector.
     • Technology & Communication (+66.45 points).
     • Oil & Gas Marketing Companies (+44.72 points).
   • Lagging Sectors:
     • Fertilizer (-375.69 points): Weak performance from FFC and EFERT weighed heavily on the index.
     • Oil & Gas Exploration Companies (-122.97 points).
3. Stock Performance:
   • Top Gainers:
     • JVDC (+9.99%).
     • LOTCHEM (+6.90%).
     • BAHL (+6.75%).
   • Top Losers:
     • NCPL (-3.15%).
     • FFC (-2.92%).
     • LUCK (-2.74%).
4. Market Breadth:
   • Out of 100 index companies: 54 gained, 43 lost, and 3 remained unchanged.
   • All-Share Index: Closed at 62,171.82, up 75.46 points (0.12%).
5. Volumes and Trades:
   • Total KSE-100 volume: 281.10 million shares.
   • Broader market: 640.26 million shares traded, marking a significant decrease from the previous session’s 1,249.09 million shares.
6. Top Volume Leaders:
   • HASCOL: 12.35 PKR (+9.97%), with 64.8 million shares traded.
   • CNERGY: 4.71 PKR (+4.90%), with 48.06 million shares traded.

Outlook and Analyst Insights

• Year-to-Date Performance:
  • The KSE-100 has gained 19,635 points (+25.03%) during the current fiscal year.
  • Calendar year gains stand at an impressive 35,629 points (+57.05%).
• Forward Outlook:
  • Analysts expect the index to rally beyond 120,000 by the end of next year.
  • Improving macroeconomic indicators, declining bond yields, and a surplus of liquidity in equities are driving optimism.
• Risks to Monitor:
  • Continued volatility in sectors like fertilizer and cement could act as a drag.
  • Geopolitical and fiscal policy developments may impact investor sentiment.

The KSE-100 remains poised for further growth as macroeconomic conditions improve and investor confidence stays strong. However, intermittent profit-taking and sector-specific pressures may result in short-term fluctuations.

MARKETS

The Pakistani Rupee (PKR) maintained stability against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s interbank trading session, settling at PKR 277.75 per USD, marginally improving by 0.01 paisa from its previous close of PKR 277.76.

The gold price (XAU/USD) remains under pressure, trading above the $2,650 level during Monday’s European session. While the precious metal has managed to hold above key technical support—the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart—several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are contributing to its bearish tone.